[Zimbabwe] ANALYSIS-Growing poverty seen stoking protests

from Reuters

By Cris Chinaka

HARARE, April 12 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's rapid economic decline has triggered desperation among city dwellers that could turn planned opposition protests against President Robert Mugabe's government into a potent force.

Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai dramatically raised the stakes last month when he proposed mass protests at a time when the country is battling its worst economic downturn since independence and has the world's highest inflation rate.

"We are on the brink ... and anyone who thinks the political situation is manageable at this rate of economic deterioration is going to be shocked," John Makumbe, a political scientist at Harare's University of Zimbabwe, told Reuters.

"For many people, especially in the urban areas, life has become unaffordable and unbearable and these people are waiting to vent their anger through mass demonstrations," said Makumbe, a critic of the government.

The government, while acknowledging the economic crisis, says it remains optimistic but in private officials say rising prices and unemployment above 70 percent are stoking anger, especially in cities.

Last week Zimbabwe's annual inflation rate, measured through the consumer price index (CPI), jumped to 913.6 percent for the year to March from 782 percent in February.

Experts expect the rate to soar way over 1,000 percent by mid-year and Zimbabwe also faces shortages of fuel, food and foreign currency and breaking sewerage systems, power and water cuts, uncollected domestic garbage and deteriorating roads.

It amounts to the worst economic situation since Mugabe led the country to independence from Britain in 1980 and the time when Zimbabwe was one of Africa's most prosperous states is a distant memory, political and economic analysts say.



"DICING WITH DEATH"

The government employed tough policing methods against mass protests in 1998 and subsequent demonstrations, cowing many people but now there was a generation of unemployed youths ready for confrontation, Makumbe said.

"The element of fear is exaggerated ... and I think that point is going to become clearer if the government fails to sort out the economy in the next few months," Makumbe said.

Mugabe, 82, warned Tsvangirai he would be "dicing with death" if he tries to use protests to drive him from power but officials sources said the government was worried and working on plans to clamp down on the opposition.

"There is no denial that the political and economic climate is not ideal for the government and the system must be ready to overcome all those who may try to subvert law and order," said one official who declined to be named.

The ruling ZANU-PF party -- which co-led Zimbabwe's independence war -- warned Tsvangirai it was a battle-hardened movement and any street protests by his main faction of the MDC would end up in bloodbath.

Tsvangirai is yet to name a date for protests, which could start small, and analysts say Mugabe's strategy could be to stifle any campaign before it takes off in the coming months.

A key opposition demand is for a new constitution, viewed as essential for fair elections. Tsvangirai says ZANU-PF party has rigged three major elections since 2000, a charge Mugabe denies.

The government's own view of the economy is upbeat. The state-controlled Herald daily said on Wednesday industry's capacity utilisation fell more than 50 percent and Gross Domestic Product shrunk by 35 percent over the past seven years.

"These negatives could soon begin to fizzle out if spirited efforts to resuscitate the economy are sustained," it said.

Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of political pressure group National Constitutional Assembly, said while Tsvangirai appeared to have the numbers on his side, his real challenge would be to capitalise on the growing national frustration.

"If the whole democratic movement comes together, and it looks like that is beginning to happen, I see this programme of mass action getting off (the ground)," he said.