Sudan – a case for international intervention?

from In The News

The deepening crisis in Darfur has moved thousands to protest on the streets of western countries.

But at long last, the international community is gearing up to a substantial intervention in Darfur through a UN peacekeeping force. How effective will it prove to be? Will it help aid agencies reach those who most need help?

Cause of the crisis

The conflicts within Darfur set Sudan's pro-Arab central government against shifting alliances of rebel militias who oppose control from Khartoum. Ever since Sudan became independent from Britain in 1956 the ethnic south has pushed for as much autonomy as possible, frequently resorting to armed insurrection. Peace deals have come and gone, but the belief in Darfur that Sudanese leaders do not prioritise those living in the poorest regions of the country has not gone away.

The human cost

In 2004 the government-backed Janjaweed militia began a systematic campaign of rape, murder and destruction which many observers said amounted to genocide. Tens of thousands died during the massacres, leaving families throughout the entire region fearful that the janjaweed would strike their village next. Many fled to refugee camps - four million people were displaced by October last year – creating the conditions for devastating poverty and disease. Overall, 200,000 people are estimated to have died in the conflict.

Alienating Khartoum

Efforts to convince the Sudanese government to stop the violence have been largely unsuccessful. Khartoum has consistently denied its collusion with the Janjaweed and strenuously rejected allegations from the international criminal court accusing the Janjaweed leader and its humanitarian affairs minister of war crimes. In this environment of accusation and angry denial, efforts to secure permission for peacekeepers to enter the region proved extremely difficult.

Breakthrough

On April 16th, after months of prevarication, Mr al-Bashir backed down and agreed to the proposed "heavy support package". The UN immediately began two days of frenetic negotiations with AU leaders to liaise on the deployment of the troops. Secretary-general Ban Ki-moon said "intensive discussions" had taken place to accelerate the political process by "embracing all rebel leaders".

When asked about the schedule for the deployment, his answer was simple: "as soon as possible".

June–July 2007: Clampdown on Khartoum

On May 29th president George Bush placed new sanctions on the country, further isolating the Khartoum government.

On June 25th secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, said "difficult choices" would have to be made "to compel Khartoum to do what it must".

"If in fact the Sudanese are prepared to accept the hybrid force, they need to accept it once and for all and stop the process of trying to scale it back," she said.

August 2007: Shaky progress

August 1st saw what UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon described as a "historic and unprecedented resolution" passed in New York. After months of wrangling, the use of force to protect civilians in Sudan's Darfur region was finally approved.

The plan involved the deployment of almost 20,000 military personnel and more than 6,000 police officers, but is not expected to be fully implemented until next year.

Further diplomatic efforts from Mr Ban led to agreement for renewed peace talks between rebels and representatives of the Khartoum government this autumn later in the month. But ongoing instability, and an awareness among leaders of the need to make progress on security, the political process and humanitarian access, mean the international community is far from complacent about the region's prospects.

Khartoum's decision to expel diplomats representing the European Commission and the Canadian government on August 23rd, followed by an Amnesty International report a day later alleging that Khartoum was breaking the international Darfur arms embargo, were a reminder of the continuing tense situation.

September-November 2007: Question-marks

Not much good news came from Sudan throughout much of September and October, with reports of a south-eastern town being razed to the ground on October 7th following quickly on the deaths of at least ten peacekeepers after a raid on their base in the same area.

But on October 27th Khartoum announced a unilateral ceasefire as peace talks began in Sirte, Libya. The news was welcome, but the agreements reached appeared to be compromised by the fact that three major rebel groups refused to attend.

More significant to prospects on the ground, according to Amnesty International researcher Liz Hodgkin, are prospects for the forthcoming UN-African Union peacekeeping force.

Expectations have been remorselessly undermined by the UN's under-secretary general for peacekeeping affairs, Jean-Marie Guehenno. On October 9th he said the mission was severely under-resourced and unable to cope; and on November 14th he went further, warning that the planned deployment may not even go ahead.