Poverty fans brushfire of opposition anger

from the Financial Times

By Alec Russell

With his dark, shiny suit and his darting eyes the former official from Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu-PF party was clearly out of place in the crowd of exuberant opposition supporters.

Almost all wore T-shirts emblazoned with the face of "two cheeks", as Morgan Tsvangirai, the burly leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, is known. They included some of the very people whom, in the last three campaigns, the former Zanu-PF stalwart, by his own admission, intimidated and assaulted to entrench President Robert Mugabe in power.

But Frank Tore felt emboldened to speak his mind by his defection six months ago to the MDC. "I worked with these people [Zanu-PF] since 1980 when Zimbabwe got its independence. They always needed us at elections but they duped us, afterwards they forgot about us.

"When we were in Zanu- PF we were told to hit people and to abuse them. Even now they are still doing it. But since I've been working with them I've got nothing at my home. You should get something. My suffering is getting from bad to worse. Many of my colleagues are with me and only the dun-derheads are left behind."

There are still many Zanu-PF officials overseeing the bussing in of supporters to Mugabe rallies ahead of tomorrow's presidential and parliamentary elections, as they have done faithfully in the 28 years since he took power. But even if the 84-year-old autocrat manages one way or another to secure another victory this weekend, it is clear his once mesmeric hold over the rural areas of Mashonaland, the homeland of his fellow ethnic Shonas, is crumbling.

The Zanu-PF defector was speaking as several thousand MDC supporters cheered Mr Tsvangirai at a rally in the small town of Kotwe, 140 miles north-east of the capital Harare. Just three years ago at the last parliamentary elections, Zanu-PF was so active in this region that it was dangerous to campaign there.

Now, in large areas of rural Zimbabwe, it is as if a brushfire of anti-Mugabe sentiment has taken hold, feeding on the collapse of the economy and public services. The critical question is whether the residual institutional force of the state can, as many analysts suspect, summon up the strength one more time to extinguish the threat.

Backed by slavish state media, Mr Mugabe is campaigning vigorously, harking back to his leadership of the liberation of Zimbabweans from colonialism under the slogan "the fist of empowerment". Giant banners with his face and the words "Our Land, Our Sovereignty" hang over the entrance to many rural towns, a reference to his controversial land expropriations of 2000.

But all the while, Mr Tsvangirai and the other presidential contender, Simba Makoni, a former finance minister, are launching incursions into his heartland, spreading their message that Mr Mugabe has reached his sell-by date.

"All those people who are unemployed, lift up your hand," Mr Tsvangirai bellowed to crowd after crowd as he criss-crossed Mashonaland East on Wednesday. Each time more than three quarters of his audience raised a hand. "Some of you who are dark," he continued. "It's not because you are dark but because you have no money for soap . . ."

There were roars of laughter mixed with a weary acceptance that he had hit the mark. "We are just looking for change," said Moses Kapesi, 28, an unemployed agricultural worker. "A bar of soap is Z$70m [less than US$2 but about a fifth of a monthly wage for a farm worker]; no one here can afford it.

"Three years ago [the] MDC couldn't pull a crowd here and the chiefs in the rural area would treat you very harshly. Even today Zanu-PF were trying to chase people away up the road. The old people used to listen, but now we are telling our mums and dads to open their eyes. My dad voted Zanu-PF before. I tell him things are not right. I cannot afford anything. He understands. He is in the crowd."

In a story that is echoed across Zimbabwe, his friend, Zvinai Hove, 36, recounted how his mother died unnecessarily two months ago after a brief malaria-like fever. There were no medicines at the local hospital and they could not afford the admission fee. She was 59.

"Conditions are so very, very poor. Schoolchildren just go to school to feed themselves from the WFP [World Food Programme], and then they come home without attending any lessons. The chiefs always support Zanu-PF but people are no longer supporting them."

Zanu-PF still has state resources at its disposal. At one Tsvangirai rally an army helicopter buzzed low over the crowd in what most saw as attempted intimidation. But unlike in past elections, the security forces have mainly stood by and let the opposition campaign.

"The women in the local market will vote for Mugabe," said one young man. "Zanu-PF comes to the market and hands out 50kg bags of mealie meal. They can't see beyond that.