Millennium Goals’ progress disputed

from the Latin America Press

Susan Abad.

Discrepancies in measurements cause varied opinions on goals’ completion

Only seven years away from the end of the term given to complete the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDG) — which 189 countries pledged to reach to alleviate poverty in a historic meeting carried out in New York in 2000 — there is still no consensus in Colombia on whether all the projected goals will be reached by 2015.

Due to differences in the methods used by the National Department of Planning (DNP, for its initials in Spanish) and United Nations Development Program (UNDP) to measure the goals’ indicators, there are varied assessments of the eight agreed upon goals: to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger; achieve universal primary education; promote gender equality and empower women; reduce child mortality; improve maternal health; combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensure environment sustainability; and establish a global partnership for development.

“We currently have three levels of national indicators: those from the DNP, which has 31 indicators, those from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), and those managed by the UNDP (51 indicators). The three, in many cases, do not measure exactly the same and the sources are not always the same,” explained José Fernando Arias, Social Development director of the DNP.

Government optimism
César Caballero, UNDP coordinator for the Millennium Project goals, confirms that the first goal of reducing poverty in Colombia to 28.5 percent by 2015, “seems unlikely to be reached,” and explains that the reason he holds this pessimistic projection is because “in 2002 we had 52 percent poverty and now, despite having advanced, we are at 45 percent poverty.”

The DPN, however, projects that by 2010 poverty will decrease to 35 percent, which would make it likely to arrive at 28.5 percent by 2015.

Arias further claims that not only will they reach the goal to reduce extreme poverty to 8.8 percent — which was at 20.4 percent in 1991 — but he hopes to go beyond the projected goal and reach 6 percent by 2015.

Another concern for the UNDP is achieving universal primary education. In 1992, the illiteracy rate between the ages of 15 and 24 — one of the indicators agreed upon — was 3.7 percent in 1992, which would hopefully go down to 1 percent by 2015.

Caballero estimates that “the illiteracy rate in this range in 2006 was 2.1 percent, and following that current reduction trend would mean that the illiteracy rate of that range reaches 1.6 percent in 2015.”

But the DPN projects that the illiteracy rate for this age range will be 1.4 percent in 2010, implying that the goal of 1 percent could be met by 2015.

The UNDP expert says that they additionally fear incompletion of the fourth goal — regarding the reduction of child mortality —to have 95 percent vaccination coverage for children younger than 5 years through the Extended Immunization Plan. But for the DPN, this goal will be achieved by 2010.

Both organizations coincide, however, in their concern for promoting gender equality and empowering women due to the increase in violence against women and for their sparse political representation in parliament — two important goal indicators. Caballero says that “women make up 50 percent of the population and there are hardly 12 percent women parliament members.”

Policies not enough
One issue the DNP and UNDP undoubtedly coincide on is the immense inequality between the rural and urban areas, even within the same departments in Colombia.

“The averages of goal reaching are pushed by the big cities, but the rest is really trailing behind,” said Caballero, who added that if the rural areas and less-developed departments were measured separately, “it is likely that none of the MDGs would be achieved in these places.”

Likewise, Arias claimed that “the MDGs will not be completed in the straggling zones of Colombia nor any other country in the world. What we can do is to make a great effort to reduce the regional and societal gaps.”

But national policy is not enough to reduce the gaps, said Caballero.

“It is essential to implement regional policies and projects that are based on regional realities. Departments and towns must be reached so that these policies are flexible in practice and can be adapted to each of the issues,” he said.

For this reason the UNDP assists mayors and governors in the most vulnerable regions and, by adapting technical experience to their reality, helps them to identify initial indicators as a base from which they can design their own policies for social development.

In the meantime, the DPN has a Transfer Monitoring System, which serves to assign resources to towns that lag behind and supervise the use of these resources in key sectors such as health, potable water and education.

“We will not achieve anything by having a fair assignment system if the spending is not done well,” said Arias.

Only seven years away from the end of the term given to complete the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDG) — which 189 countries pledged to reach to alleviate poverty in a historic meeting carried out in New York in 2000 — there is still no consensus in Colombia on whether all the projected goals will be reached by 2015.

Due to differences in the methods used by the National Department of Planning (DNP, for its initials in Spanish) and United Nations Development Program (UNDP) to measure the goals’ indicators, there are varied assessments of the eight agreed upon goals: to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger; achieve universal primary education; promote gender equality and empower women; reduce child mortality; improve maternal health; combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensure environment sustainability; and establish a global partnership for development.

“We currently have three levels of national indicators: those from the DNP, which has 31 indicators, those from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), and those managed by the UNDP (51 indicators). The three, in many cases, do not measure exactly the same and the sources are not always the same,” explained José Fernando Arias, Social Development director of the DNP.

Government optimism
César Caballero, UNDP coordinator for the Millennium Project goals, confirms that the first goal of reducing poverty in Colombia to 28.5 percent by 2015, “seems unlikely to be reached,” and explains that the reason he holds this pessimistic projection is because “in 2002 we had 52 percent poverty and now, despite having advanced, we are at 45 percent poverty.”

The DPN, however, projects that by 2010 poverty will decrease to 35 percent, which would make it likely to arrive at 28.5 percent by 2015.

Arias further claims that not only will they reach the goal to reduce extreme poverty to 8.8 percent — which was at 20.4 percent in 1991 — but he hopes to go beyond the projected goal and reach 6 percent by 2015.

Another concern for the UNDP is achieving universal primary education. In 1992, the illiteracy rate between the ages of 15 and 24 — one of the indicators agreed upon — was 3.7 percent in 1992, which would hopefully go down to 1 percent by 2015.

Caballero estimates that “the illiteracy rate in this range in 2006 was 2.1 percent, and following that current reduction trend would mean that the illiteracy rate of that range reaches 1.6 percent in 2015.”

But the DPN projects that the illiteracy rate for this age range will be 1.4 percent in 2010, implying that the goal of 1 percent could be met by 2015.

The UNDP expert says that they additionally fear incompletion of the fourth goal — regarding the reduction of child mortality —to have 95 percent vaccination coverage for children younger than 5 years through the Extended Immunization Plan. But for the DPN, this goal will be achieved by 2010.

Both organizations coincide, however, in their concern for promoting gender equality and empowering women due to the increase in violence against women and for their sparse political representation in parliament — two important goal indicators. Caballero says that “women make up 50 percent of the population and there are hardly 12 percent women parliament members.”

Policies not enough
One issue the DNP and UNDP undoubtedly coincide on is the immense inequality between the rural and urban areas, even within the same departments in Colombia.

“The averages of goal reaching are pushed by the big cities, but the rest is really trailing behind,” said Caballero, who added that if the rural areas and less-developed departments were measured separately, “it is likely that none of the MDGs would be achieved in these places.”

Likewise, Arias claimed that “the MDGs will not be completed in the straggling zones of Colombia nor any other country in the world. What we can do is to make a great effort to reduce the regional and societal gaps.”

But national policy is not enough to reduce the gaps, said Caballero.

“It is essential to implement regional policies and projects that are based on regional realities. Departments and towns must be reached so that these policies are flexible in practice and can be adapted to each of the issues,” he said.

For this reason the UNDP assists mayors and governors in the most vulnerable regions and, by adapting technical experience to their reality, helps them to identify initial indicators as a base from which they can design their own policies for social development.

In the meantime, the DPN has a Transfer Monitoring System, which serves to assign resources to towns that lag behind and supervise the use of these resources in key sectors such as health, potable water and education.