'UPA may lose in 2009 if it does not fight poverty'

from The Economic Times

India's ruling coalition should battle the country's endemic poverty in a big way if it wants to win elections three years from now, an American political scientist has warned.

Paul Wallace feels that the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is "honestly trying" that. But he says it will have to show "some sign of progress" if it wants to avoid the 2004 fate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the next parliamentary elections.

Wallace, who is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Missouri in Columbia, also said that a "sub-continent" like India would not see a two-party system for a long time to come.

"Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who I knew when I was doing my Ph D in Panjab University, he and elements in the Congress are honestly trying (to fight poverty).

"Efforts are being made but they don't seem to be sufficient. But politically, they have to be more successful than seems to be apparent now. Or, in 2009, the anti-incumbency factor will work then. It worked in 2004 against the BJP and it could work against the UPA unless there is some sign of progress," Wallace told the media in an interview.

The issue of poverty, Wallace said, was key to understanding why the Indian voters behaved the way they did in 2004 when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was voted out in an election nobody thought they would lose.

"The absolute number of poor in India today is larger than the population of India at independence. The fact that the percentage might be going down is one statistic. But the absolute number is enormous. And if one looks at the global figures of poverty, India's record is not very good.