African poverty has doubled in 20 years

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by Vicki Robinson

An new report has revealed that poverty in sub-Saharan Africa has doubled over the past 20 years, while in East Asia it has fallen by half.

Poverty, Inequality and Labour Markets in Africa: A Descriptive Overview was released this week by the University of Cape Town’s Development Policy Research Unit.

The report focuses on the two decades since 1981.

Development economist Haroon Bhorat, author of the report, says poverty in the sub-Saharan region has worsened to such an extent that it needs to be defined in terms of the “ultra-poor” -- people living on less than half of the World Bank’s $1-a-day poverty line.

He writes: “The high incidence of poverty according to the $1-a-day line is now well known for sub--Saharan Africa. [The report suggests] this needs to be overlayed with a key feature of the continent’s welfare challenge: the presence of the ultra-poor in sub-Saharan Africa distinguishes it very starkly from the poor in the rest of the developing world.”

In the past 20 years the number of poor people living in sub--Saharan Africa has almost doubled, from 164-million to 316-million, the report notes.

In comparison, South Asia -- including Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam -- has reduced its poverty levels at an annualised rate of 2% to 3%. East Asia, including China, has halved its poverty in the past decade. “Even with China excluded, the performance has been exceptional,” says Bhorat.

On average, the poor in sub--Saharan Africa earn a fifth of the $1-a-day that would keep them above the poverty line, according to the research. Forty-six percent of the region’s people survive on $1 a day, 21% on $0,50 a day and 6% on $0,25 a day. Only 17% earn above the -poverty line.

Most worrying, however, is Bhorat’s analysis that “both the level and nature of economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa are not conducive to poverty reduction. The region’s growth path is clearly not as pro-poor as that found, for example, in East Asia and the Pacific.”

Bhorat’s report, which he has bolstered with his own research, is the most comprehensive on indigence in the region and “cuts to the nub of the numbers”, he says.

“Over a 20-year period, largely through the 1990s, sub-Saharan Africa has been unable to significantly alter the proportion of individuals in the region who are living and earning below $1,03 per day, which lies in stark contrast to many other regions of the developing world,” says the report.

Apart from inadequate growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa, the governments in the region are not effectively translating this growth into poverty alleviation, says Bhorat. While a 1% increase in economic growth resulted in a 1,47% reduction in poverty in 1981, this measure slipped to 1,28% in 2001.

The research also shows that in the 20-year period since 1980 the region’s labour force has been the third-fastest growing in the world, at 2,6% per year. This is above the world average of 1,8%. The Middle East and North Africa recorded the highest labour growth at 3%. Latin America and the Caribbean were second, with 2,7%.

“In a continent where the growth in mean incomes has been at best tepid, the likelihood of significant reductions in absolute and relative poverty remains an even harder objective,” says Bhorat.

A copy of the report is available from the Development Policy Research Unit at the University of Cape Town.